World scheduled air passenger traffic grew by 4.9% in 2012, reaching 5.4 trillion passenger-kilometres performed (PKPs) and is expected to increase by 4.8%, 5.9% and 6.3% in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
The 4.9% growth in PKPs (international and domestic services combined) recorded by airlines of the 191 Member States of ICAO was significantly lower than the 6.6% increase posted in 2011. The number of passengers grew by some 4.7% to almost 3 billion, while departures were up 0.7% to 31.2 million globally.
ICAO expects world scheduled air traffic, in terms of PKPs, to grow by 4.8% in 2013, close to the growth rate recorded in 2012.
According to IHS/Global Insight, a major economic forecasting organization, world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in real terms will grow at 3.1% during 2013, up from 3.0% last year.
In the first half of 2013, the European Union (EU) remained mired in recession, while most other key economies grew at lower-than-expected rates. Results for the second half of the year should improve, given the impressive resilience of the US economy, the economic recovery in Japan and the stabilization of Eurozone financial markets.
Despite regional turmoil and a pessimistic short-term economic outlook, the airlines of the Middle East should continue to register the fastest traffic growth in terms of PKPs, with a 10.2% increase over 2012. This forecast is based on the strong performance of its largest air carriers in gaining market share on international routes outside of the Region.
The airlines of Latin America/Caribbean, Asia/Pacific and African Regions are expected to grow at 7.6%, 5.5% and 5.2% in 2013, respectively. Scheduled passenger air traffic in Europe and North America should increase by 4.4% and 2.3% in 2013, respectively, leading to a slightly higher share of world traffic for European carriers than for North American operators. The Asia/Pacific Region will remain the largest market.
Current expectations of a 4.0% (2014) and 4.5% (2015) annual GDP at PPP growth rate for the world economy over 2014–2015 should translate into world air traffic growth of 5.9% and 6.3%, respectively.
2012 revisited
In terms of PKPs, the Asia/Pacific Region is the largest market with 30% of world traffic. The airlines of this Region posted in 2012 a 6.4% increase over 2011. Airlines of the European and North American Regions, each representing 27% of world traffic, grew at 3.9% and 1.3%, respectively. The Middle East Region had the highest growth rate with 13.7% and accounts for 8% of world traffic. The Latin America/Caribbean Region, with 5% of world traffic, grew at 8.6%, while the African Region, with 2% of world traffic, was up by 4.2%.
International traffic in terms of PKPs increased by 5.4% in 2012. The largest growth rate was registered by the airlines of the Middle East Region at 14.3%, followed by those of the Latin America/Caribbean Region at 8.9%, the Asia/Pacific Region at 4.6% and Europe at 4.4%. International traffic in the African and North American Regions grew by 4.2% and 2.0%, respectively. The comparatively low growth figure for North America relates to a larger traffic base and still represents a significant increase in absolute terms.
In terms of domestic traffic, markets grew by 4.1% overall. Growth rates of 0.1%, 0.9% and 3.6% in Europe, North America and the Middle East, respectively, were much lower than those achieved by the African, Latin America/Caribbean and Asia/Pacific Regions at 4.3%, 8.4% and 8.6% respectively.
In the Asia/Pacific Region, the domestic market in China increased by 10.3%. North America is still the largest domestic market with 47% of the world domestic scheduled traffic, however, deceleration of traffic growth is confirming the maturity of this market.
Source: ICAO